With the rise of AI and platforms such as ChatGPT and Dall-E, concerns are being raised about their negative impact on various professions. To get a better understanding of which professions are anticipated to face the greatest negative impact, we’ve gathered insights from three experts. Opinions were presented by In4Act researchers Dr. Andrius Grybauskas and prof. Mantas Vilkas, while PR Agency Owner and CMO for one of the biggest events in the Baltic region “Comic Con Baltics”, Paulius Bakanauskas shared his view as a representative of the creative industry.
Dr. Andrius Grybauskas, In4Act researcher, admits that much of today’s research regarding job automation has been done prior to GPT-4 technologies, and thus, it’s difficult to predict with certainty which professions will be most impacted.
However, he cites a recent paper by OpenAI that outlines the following professions as being severely exposed: mathematicians, accountants and auditors, reporters, journalists, news analysts, writers, financial quantitative analysts, web and digital interface designers. Despite this exposure, it’s still unclear whether or not these professions will be completely automated or just affected to some degree.
“Nonetheless, exposure does not mean complete automation. As of today, companies are engaged in an inner battle of how to implement large language models within their business environment. The end results are still to be decided. Perhaps only the exposed professions will be automated, or perhaps an even larger subset of professions will be affected, or perhaps we will simply adjust the way we do things to become more productive,” says Dr. A. Grybauskas.
According to another In4Act researcher, prof. Mantas Vilkas there has recently been an introduction of large generative AI models, and numerous companies have been exploring various use cases for these models. Despite the potential, it is still too early to fully comprehend the overall impact of generative AI models.
He says, “the legislation may inhibit the diffusion of the used cases based on the models. For example, Italy has restricted the use of ChatGPT over privacy concerns recently. However, if the legislation is loose, we may predict that knowledge-intensive professions will be affected mainly by the emergence of generative AI. There two important factors that could predict the impact of generative AI models on knowledge intensive professions: automation potential and industry growth potential”.
Automation potential is highest for IT developers and sales managers, especially telemarketers, educators, legal sector workers, publishing and creative industry workers. On the contrary, the automation potential of architects’ jobs is low so far.
However, how the sector jobs will be affected depends also on the sector’s growth potential. One example is the IT sector. The automation potential of the jobs in the sector is high. Current large language models are able to code segments of code, test the code for issues, and even translate code from one language to another. This could decrease the workload on IT developers by 30% to 60%, increasing workers’ productivity.
M. Vilkas notes that, at the same time, the IT sector has a huge growth potential: only 3 to 5% of graduates finish IT-related study programs. Infobalt, a Lithuanian DigiTech sector association, estimates that companies would be eager to hire up to 100.000 IT engineers currently. The need for IT developers is immense. Thus, generative AI may increase the sector’s productivity without adverse consequences on the jobs in the short-to-medium term. Conversely, the news media sector has far lower growth potential. The generative AI may identify potentially hot topics, summarize sources into a news article, curate comments on posts, etc. Given the high automation and low growth potential, the effect on the jobs in the sector could be more substantial. In summary, if the generative AI is not restricted, each knowledge worker will get a tool supporting their activities. It could lead to job losses in mature knowledge-intensive industries lacking growth potential.
Paulius Bakanauskas, an Owner of PR Agency “Instakademija” and CMO for one of the biggest events in the Baltic region “Comic Con Baltics”, compares the impact of AI on professions to that of previous industrial revolutions. He believes that assertions that AI will affect certain professions is true to some extent but will create new opportunities. In his opinion, AI will displace mechanical jobs and drive up the demand for premium content, thereby giving content creators an opportunity to focus on their creativity.
According to P. Bakanauskas, “the impact of AI on the job market can be compared to previous industrial revolutions, where mass-produced goods became available, but people still paid and continue to pay a premium price for handcrafted luxury items, such as, for example, watches, designer clothes, etc. Similarly, the rise of paid content, such as articles, video content produced by experts in their respective fields, will create a demand for “luxury” content that is created by humans and provides additional value to the customer. The trend began prior to the introduction of “ChatGPT”, with the launch of the “Patreon” platform, where users pay for exclusive content. With AI doing all the “boring” work, content creators will have more time to fulfill their creative ideas.”
He adds, that it can be predicted that while cheaper, mass-produced content will become more prevalent, there will still be a need for high-quality, human-produced content that meets the unique needs and preferences of customers. This trend presents opportunities for those who can provide specialized, high-quality content and emphasizes the importance of skills that cannot be easily replicated by machines.
In conclusion, while it’s difficult to predict with certainty which professions will be most impacted by the rise of AI and generative models, it’s clear that knowledge-intensive industries will be most affected in the long run. Nonetheless, there will always be a demand for high-quality, human-produced content that adds value to the customer and emphasizes skills that cannot be easily replicated by machines.